Bitcoin’s bear market is poised to find a bottom when a key technical indicator, the two-month stochastic relative strength index (RSI), drops to zero again, according to crypto analyst Max Crypto. This signal has historically marked the end of Bitcoin’s bearish phases in prior cycles and is expected to do so once more by 2026.
The two-month stochastic RSI, a momentum indicator that emphasizes recent price movements more heavily than the classic RSI, has consistently provided reliable insight into Bitcoin’s price reversals. Max Crypto highlighted that every time this indicator reached zero and displayed a bullish crossover—in 2014, 2018, and most recently in 2022—Bitcoin bottomed and launched subsequent upward rallies.
Currently, the indicator is above zero but near oversold territory, a level last observed over three years ago. Market participants have closely watched daily stochastic RSI moves in 2023, noting parallels to the previous bear market. Crypto trader Quantum Ascend has described recent Bitcoin price action as closely mimicking the patterns seen during the last downtrend.
Alongside the stochastic RSI, other technical signals reinforce optimism for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Traditional RSI measures have given bullish divergence cues amid Bitcoin’s hesitant trading just above $60,000. Notably, daily RSI dropped to very low levels earlier this month—comparable to only a handful of extreme selling events in Bitcoin’s history—which often precede price reversals.
One trader pointed out that the recent RSI lows resemble a subtle price sweep that happened toward the end of Bitcoin’s 2015 accumulation phase, a precursor to a strong rebound. This suggests the market may still face a brief further dip before establishing a more durable bottom.
Bitcoin’s return above $64,000 earlier in June followed multiple bullish RSI divergences, which signal buying interest despite previous downward pressure. These indicators collectively suggest that although Bitcoin is navigating volatile territory, key metrics used by traders could foreshadow the bear market’s conclusion well before 2026.