Bitcoin continues to trade near $60,000, stirring questions about when its correction might reach a bottom. Analysts observing historical price cycles suggest that investors should focus less on short-term price movements and more on the broader calendar, as past bear market lows have consistently appeared in the year’s final quarter.
Crypto analyst Ardi emphasized this pattern by sharing a decade-long weekly chart showing Bitcoin’s bear cycle lows invariably emerging in the fourth quarter. Past cycle corrections stretched over roughly a year before reaching lows—Bitcoin’s 2013 bear market bottomed after 413 days, the 2017 cycle low came after 378 days, and the 2021 bear market bottomed following 364 days. Currently, Bitcoin’s correction has lasted about 245 days since the October 2025 peak, suggesting more time may remain before a final bottom.
This timeline aligns with several other prominent voices in the crypto community who pinpoint the fourth quarter of 2026 as the most probable timeframe for Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, noted the current cycle remains consistent with the historical four-year pattern, with the last peak arriving within a week of its usual timing. Other analysts, such as Ali Martinez and Xanrox, also forecast bottoms between September and October 2026, followed by a recovery phase starting before year-end.
Additional technical indicators support this view. CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score—a measure comparing market value to realized value—could dip below zero between October and December 2026, signaling undervaluation typical at cycle lows. Similarly, the Bitcoin Repetition Fractal Cycle points to October 2026 as a pivotal month when market dynamics might shift.
Bitcoin’s recent price action reinforces the cautious outlook. After a notable drop of over 6% in 24 hours, BTC reached its lowest level in four months, hovering just above the critical $60,000 support. Market sentiment remains impacted by ongoing outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which continue to weigh on prices.