Bitcoin’s downward trend could persist until early 2027, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who based his forecast on detailed on-chain data monitoring investor profit and loss cycles. He explained that after significant profit-taking phases, Bitcoin investors typically endure about 18 months of negative returns, pointing to a bear market that started trending in late 2025 and may not end soon.
Ju referenced CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, a tool that tracks profitability cycles via moving averages calculated over a full year. The index recently reached a peak similar to those observed before prolonged bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022, indicating a possible rollover and further declines in investor profits. According to him, the market has yet to show signs of recovery, which traditionally occurs only when unrealized profits rise and realized profits start to drop.
Bitcoin’s pricing remains volatile amid growing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. At the time of Ju’s statement, Bitcoin traded slightly above $73,000 with the derivatives market displaying heightened stress. Open interest shrank to about $55 billion, and liquidations surged with $224 million wiped out over 24 hours, most impacting long positions, reflecting a sell-off from bullish traders. Despite this, major exchanges including Binance and OKX maintain a bullish long-short ratio, signaling continued market optimism among some participants.
Beyond crypto-specific challenges, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has declined to approximately $1.46 trillion, slipping behind major tech companies and commodities such as gold, which currently holds a valuation near $31 trillion. The price slide has occurred amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, notably between the U.S. and Iran, and recent U.S. inflation data showing a persistent cost increase that adds pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies as expectations grow for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.