Bitcoin’s price action aligns with patterns observed in previous macro bottoms, indicating the cryptocurrency is approaching a critical bear-market turning point. A prominent quantitative analyst has highlighted that all major bottom signals have appeared or are emerging, suggesting this phase will become clear in retrospect once the market shifts upward.
The analysis draws focus to the 200-week simple moving average (SMA)—a key long-term trend indicator—and its associated quantiles, which have historically marked turning points during bear markets, including the troughs seen in 2022 and the March 2020 COVID crash. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is revisiting these reversal zones, hinting at a possible stabilization ahead.
Support for a near-term market shift comes from short-term holders—wallets that have retained Bitcoin for up to six months—who are increasingly taking profits on minor price recoveries. This activity is reflected in the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders, a metric measuring whether coins moved onchain are sold at profit or loss. The SOPR recently flipped positive, signaling that these holders are realizing gains, a behavior commonly associated with emerging bull markets.
However, the situation remains nuanced. Onchain analysis from another platform cautions that deeper short-term holder capitulation, characterized by SOPR values falling below previous local bottom levels, has yet to materialize. Historical bottoms often coincide with short-term holders selling at significant losses, a phase not yet evident this cycle. This implies the market has cooled but may still experience further downside before a firm base forms.
Altogether, these signals indicate that while Bitcoin is exhibiting classic bottoming behavior and short-term holders are showing encouraging profit realization, the path to a confirmed market reversal could involve additional volatility. Market watchers highlight that this process will likely be more visible in hindsight, underscoring the complexity of timing precise market pivots.