Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects persistent volatility as the cryptocurrency hovers near $62,000, encountering resistance and sell-side pressure. Despite this, a growing number of traders are suggesting that the bear market may conclude earlier than commonly expected, potentially as soon as September or October.
One trader disputes the widespread consensus that the bear market bottom will come later, possibly in 2026. This view argues that market makers, aware of general market sentiment, might push prices upward ahead of time to catch investors off-guard, triggering an early rebound. Such a scenario would contradict the traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle historically observed since 2013.
Adding to the complexity, Bitcoin recently formed a “death cross” on its price chart—a technical indicator historically associated with prolonged downtrends—suggesting continued bearish pressure. This comes amid a wider macroeconomic landscape marked by renewed geopolitical risks, including tensions impacting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which have introduced headwinds for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Market data reveals Bitcoin struggling to surpass $64,000 after repeated failed attempts, consolidating within a range between roughly $61,000 and $65,000. Analysts note that order flow suggests selling pressure remains prevalent, with elevated funding rates on derivatives markets supporting a cautious outlook. Some traders expect further drops or sideways trading before a clear trend emerges.
Upcoming US inflation reports and policy statements from Federal Reserve officials add another layer of market uncertainty, with investors cautious about how these factors will influence liquidity and risk appetite. Simultaneously, a notable distribution event among medium-sized Bitcoin holders indicates diverging sentiment within the investor community, reflecting uncertainty about the market’s next phase.