Bitcoin is once again testing a crucial technical threshold that has historically defined the start of its major bull market cycles. The price must decisively push above the 21-week moving average (WMA) on the two-week chart, currently near $82,000, to signal a confirmed bull market phase.
Crypto analyst Crypflow highlights the importance of the 21 WMA and the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) ribbon as a long-term divider between Bitcoin's bull and bear markets. For over a decade, the crossover of these two moving averages on the 2-week candlestick chart has reliably marked cycle turns: the 21 WMA moving above the 21 SMA signals a bullish trend, while the opposite indicates bearish phases.
This moving-average crossover first separated bullish and bearish phases after the 2013 cycle peak, before marking the bottoms and tops of subsequent multi-year cycles, including those in 2015, 2017–2019, and the 2020–2022 periods. The most recent bear market confirmation triggered by Bitcoin rolling over from its peak above $126,000 occurred in 2025 and initiated a corrective phase.
Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers just below the 21 WMA at approximately $81,974 while the 21 SMA stands higher near $90,415. Though Bitcoin briefly pierced the 21 WMA by touching $82,000 recently, it quickly fell back below to around $77,980, maintaining bearish control for now.
The ongoing battle to reclaim and then sustain above this key moving average will likely signal whether Bitcoin can break out from the bear market and resume its cyclical upward momentum. Until the bullish crossover cements itself with the 21 WMA above the 21 SMA, traders remain cautious amid mixed price action.