The Senate’s long-awaited cryptocurrency market structure bill may not pass until August or later, with a likelihood that it could stall entirely before the midterm elections, according to industry research. The bill aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, clarifying how federal agencies will oversee crypto markets.

While White House officials had hoped for the bill to clear the Senate by early July to make room for a House vote, political realities have shifted the timeline. The bill received a delayed but significant move forward in the Senate Banking Committee, advancing to the Senate floor along largely party lines. However, the bill still requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and proceed to a vote, a threshold complicated by partisan divides and dissent within the Democratic caucus.

Senate Republicans control a slim majority with 53 seats but need to secure support from at least seven Democrats to reach the 60-vote mark. Some Democrats express concerns that the bill does not adequately address issues like crime prevention and sanctions evasion linked to digital currencies. Lawmakers and industry lobbyists have also debated provisions related to the regulation of stablecoins and government use of cryptocurrencies, contributing to delays.

Congress will enter a recess between late July and early September, narrowing the legislative window for the bill’s passage before the midterms. Senate leadership is reluctant to push a heavily contested vote close to the elections, making the aftermath of the November midterms a critical period for the bill’s fate.

If Republicans maintain Senate control and prioritize the bill in a lame-duck session, it could still pass after the elections. However, if Democrats gain the upper hand, the current Republican-backed version of the bill is unlikely to advance when the new Congress convenes in January. This uncertainty forces congressional negotiators to decide between accepting an imperfect bipartisan agreement now or potentially facing a shifted political and legislative landscape in 2025.

Supporters argue that enacting the bill would provide the crypto industry with much-needed legal clarity. Under the proposed legislation, Bitcoin would be definitively classified as a commodity regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, effectively removing a significant regulatory uncertainty that has held back institutional investment.