Ethereum’s network continues to show robust internal metrics, maintaining transaction counts and total value locked (TVL) close to record levels despite a sharp drop in Ether’s market price. This divergence between on-chain activity and price indicates a possible realignment ahead, according to a recent analysis by Standard Chartered’s digital assets research team.
The report notes that Ether (ETH) has plunged approximately 57% from its August peak above $4,800 to below $2,000, yet Ethereum’s fundamental usage remains strong. Transactions on the network recently topped daily historical highs before a modest decline, and TVL in decentralized finance still measures tens of billions in ETH, reflecting ongoing ecosystem engagement.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, reiterated bullish price targets, forecasting $4,000 by the end of 2026 and an ambitious $40,000 by 2030. His outlook is tied to an expectation that Ethereum’s market dominance, especially as the main settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, will assert itself over time. Currently, Ethereum hosts roughly half to two-thirds of these expanding markets, which the bank projects could grow exponentially in the coming years.
The analogy to Amazon’s experience during the dot-com bust was highlighted to illustrate how underlying business activity can improve significantly while price performance temporarily falters. Similarly, some analysts identify Ethereum's current “lack of narrative” as a factor dragging price down despite ongoing value creation.
Max Shannon from Bitwise emphasized that Ethereum’s value accrual may strengthen as on-chain assets and transaction velocity increase, particularly if users accept higher fees for advanced services such as zero-knowledge proofs, pre-confirmations, and large institutional trades. These services could foster a more sustainable economic model within Ethereum’s layer-1 and layer-2 networks.
According to projections cited in the report, the stablecoin market capitalization tethered to Ethereum could multiply sixfold to around $2 trillion by 2028. Meanwhile, tokenized non-stablecoin real-world assets are expected to surge up to 50 times their current scale, further entrenching Ethereum’s role as a critical infrastructure layer.
Ethereum’s decentralized finance sector has seen TVL contract from nearly $97 billion in August to just over $41 billion recently, reflecting broader market adjustments. Nonetheless, the network retains unparalleled transaction volume relative to competitors, underscoring its continuing significance.
Industry voices like Justin d’Anethan at Arctic Digital appreciate Standard Chartered’s steadfast outlook amidst a bearish crypto environment, noting that in crypto markets price trends often shape narratives, complicating interpretations of fundamental value.
This mixture of enduring on-chain strength and subdued price performance presents a complex picture for investors weighing Ethereum’s medium- to long-term potential.