President Donald Trump’s recent push to have Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel has raised critical concerns about nuclear proliferation risks, according to a political scientist from the University of Chicago. The deal lacks effective oversight mechanisms to prevent Saudi Arabia from enriching uranium, potentially accelerating its path to becoming a nuclear-armed state.
Robert Pape warned that the agreement could push Saudi Arabia’s chances of acquiring a nuclear weapon from near certainty to an almost guaranteed outcome. This escalation, he argued, threatens to open the door for neighboring countries to follow suit, destabilizing the already fragile security landscape in the Middle East and beyond.
The ripple effects may include countries like the United Arab Emirates questioning why they are held to stricter nonproliferation standards if Saudi Arabia is exempt. This could trigger a cascade of nations seeking nuclear capabilities, including Eastern European states such as Poland and Ukraine, who might view nuclear armament as a security necessity amid rising global tensions.
Pape cautioned that this scenario risks plunging the United States into another prolonged military entanglement, a “forever war” that the Trump administration had hoped to avoid. Without controls to manage nuclear development, the region might face escalating arms races and conflicts that would be difficult to contain.
Experts emphasize that the Sheikhdom’s potential nuclear ambitions could undermine decades of global nonproliferation efforts, casting doubt on international diplomatic frameworks designed to curb the spread of nuclear weapons. The deal’s failure to include enforcement or verification mechanisms leaves a perilous gap in security assurances.