China and Russia remain the only countries with large-scale infrastructure capable of producing high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), a specialized fuel essential for most advanced nuclear reactors under development. This gives China a strategic edge as the United States races to deploy next-generation nuclear technologies.
The US currently lacks commercial-scale HALEU enrichment capacity, relying instead on limited government stockpiles that may fall short of demand from reactor developers in the coming years. More than a dozen companies, including TerraPower, X-energy, and Kairos Power, have already requested HALEU from the US Department of Energy for demonstration projects extending into the 2030s.
The Department of Energy projects around 21 metric tonnes of HALEU will be available by the end of 2028, rising marginally to 23.4 metric tonnes by 2030. However, experts caution this supply is unlikely to meet the projected commercial demand, which the department estimates at 50 metric tonnes annually by 2035 and escalating to approximately 500 metric tonnes by 2050.
China’s existing production capabilities could prove increasingly significant if advanced reactors are deployed faster in Asia than in Western countries. Yet geopolitical tensions and national security concerns make sourcing fuel from China an unlikely option for the United States.
Efforts to diversify supply include European enrichment consortium Urenco, which expects to produce about 10 metric tonnes of HALEU annually at a British facility, although that capacity is not forecast to be available until the early 2030s. Separately, TerraPower has signed an agreement with a South African company for HALEU enrichment after concerns about the US Energy Department’s ability to supply fuel on time for its first reactor core.
Washington remains invested in expanding domestic HALEU production. The Department of Energy has awarded nearly $2.7 billion in funding to develop commercial HALEU capacity and boost conventional low-enriched uranium production for existing reactors. However, a Government Accountability Office report flagged that the department has yet to complete an economic analysis to confirm whether these investments will ensure a commercially viable domestic fuel supply chain.
The GAO recommends the Energy Department finalize a congressionally mandated report on HALEU availability and enhance program management to better align production capacity with expected market needs. This analysis is critical as the United States seeks to secure its place in the global advanced nuclear sector and reduce dependency on foreign nuclear fuel sources, particularly from Russia.