Turkey’s climate landscape is poised for significant transformation, with Mediterranean climate zones potentially extending over almost half the country by the end of this century. This shift toward hotter and drier conditions could escalate the risks of wildfires, water shortages, and damage to key crops.
The findings, published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology and produced by researchers from Boğaziçi University and İzmir Bakırçay University, analyze changes in Turkey’s climate from historical periods and project future scenarios based on emissions pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study compares periods from the mid-20th century to present and projects changes through the mid- and late-21st century.
Between 1961 and 1990, the areas classified under a dry, hot summer Mediterranean climate covered almost 29 percent of Turkey’s territory. This increased to nearly 32 percent in the following three decades. The coverage of semi-arid steppe climates also rose, while colder climate regions with dry, warm summers shrank notably.
Under scenarios of low, medium, and very high greenhouse gas emissions, Mediterranean climates are expected to expand dramatically. By 2071 to 2099, these zones could cover 40 to 45 percent of the country, with semi-arid steppes occupying 30 to 35 percent, while cold climate zones may recede to about 10 percent of the land. Desertified areas are also projected to grow under higher emissions.
These climate shifts align with extreme weather records such as the national temperature peak of 50.5 degrees Celsius recorded in southeastern Turkey in 2025. The hotter, drier climate will likely extend summer droughts, amplify heatwaves, and lower humidity, increasing the wildfire risk and stressing water resources.
Forest wildfire risk, in particular, could intensify as Mediterranean climate zones move both northward and to higher elevations. Fires have historically devastated large tracts of forest in southwestern Turkey, with the 2021 fires burning over 160,000 hectares in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions. Projections suggest the fire-prone zones will climb approximately 120 meters in altitude by mid-century under high emissions scenarios. Meanwhile, temperate and cold climate zones are expected to shift upward even more, shrinking habitats adapted to cooler conditions.
The expanding Mediterranean climate also threatens agriculture. Crops typical to these regions, such as olives and almonds, may face stress from changing rainfall patterns and temperature increases. Glacier retreat and species habitat loss in mountainous areas could further affect biodiversity and water availability.
This evolving climate scenario comes at a critical moment as Turkey prepares to host the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya. The summit gathers global leaders to address climate challenges, making the country’s own climate projections especially relevant to discussions on adaptation and mitigation.