Oil prices advanced notably on Monday, with Brent crude surpassing $94 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) breaking above $90. The rise followed President Donald Trump’s decision to return a draft Iran nuclear agreement for revisions, signaling that negotiations remain unresolved and fueling concerns about uninterrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump asked for tighter language on Iran’s nuclear obligations and explicit assurances on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s oil trade and a key transit route for liquefied natural gas exports. His insistence on stronger provisions suggests talks will extend beyond initial expectations, delaying any immediate resolution. Sources indicated that Trump consulted advisers before requesting these changes, and discussions are likely to continue for at least another week.
The current draft proposes a 60-day ceasefire and outlines a framework for future nuclear negotiations, but several key hurdles persist. Among them are disagreements over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the extent of sanctions relief, and the binding guarantees Tehran demands prior to ratifying the final pact. These unresolved issues sustain geopolitical risk premiums embedded in crude prices, keeping markets volatile.
Over the weekend, Trump tried to inject optimism into the process, suggesting Iran “really wants to make a deal” and urging patience from critics. He reaffirmed that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon remains the top priority, cautioning that military options remain if diplomacy falls short. Despite his calls for revisions, Trump acknowledged that Iran agreed to language barring development or acquisition of nuclear arms.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials publicly denied active talks on the nuclear program’s technical details, emphasizing that ending regional conflict is their immediate concern. Yet, Iranian media reported ongoing exchanges of draft revisions, indicating negotiations have not stalled. This divergence between Washington’s cautious posture and Tehran’s statements highlights the complexity and fragility of the deal-making process.