Bitcoin’s price dropped below the $70,000 threshold during the European trading session, marking a notable shift as sellers regained dominance. This decline, unseen since April, signals Bitcoin entering a renewed distribution phase marked by mounting selling pressure and short-term investors realizing losses.
Market data reveal that short-term holders are the primary sellers. The Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether recent investors sell at a profit or loss, plunged below 1, currently sitting around 0.98. This indicates that many traders are offloading positions at a loss, reflecting uncertainty rather than a long-term structural downturn.
Similar patterns emerged in past downturns linked to geopolitical and economic uncertainty. For example, in early February, Bitcoin drifted down to $65,000 following tariff announcements and legal disputes in the U.S., showing how external shocks can trigger short-term loss-taking. Presently, the six-to-12-month holder group has also stepped up selling activity, with increasing volumes of Bitcoin flowing onto exchanges. This supply surge poses a significant obstacle to any price recovery, as these holders near peak sell levels last seen during Bitcoin’s all-time high.
Additional on-chain metrics deepen the bearish outlook. Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has fallen sharply, indicating that more coins are being sold at a loss than in previous weeks. This shift points to growing reluctance among investors to hold through the downturn, consistent with a distribution phase where supply outweighs demand.
Meanwhile, market sentiment has flipped back to “extreme fear,” as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to a low reading. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded continuous outflows over several days, underscoring a waning appetite for exposure even among institutional investors. Yet, whale activity has climbed to its highest since April, suggesting some large holders may be accumulating amid the broader weakness.
The combination of increased exchange inflows, deteriorating sentiment, and loss realization among short-term traders frames the current Bitcoin market as fragile and volatile. Without substantial absorption of this selling pressure, analysts warn the cryptocurrency could face further downward corrections in the near term.