A controversy has emerged on Polymarket after Strategy disclosed a Bitcoin sale after the betting window had closed, sparking a dispute among users wagering on whether the company had sold Bitcoin by the deadline. More than $80 million had been bet on the outcome, with participants purchasing odds on either “Yes” or “No” regarding a sale by May 31.
Strategy reported in a regulatory filing that it sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31. However, the company publicly disclosed the sale only on June 1, after the market’s cutoff, prompting Polymarket to resolve the market in favor of “No.” This decision frustrated many users who had expected the earlier sale to count.
Polymarket addressed the issue in an updated “additional context” to the market, clarifying that any sale confirmation disclosed outside the specified timeframe does not qualify for settlement. The platform noted the absence of information from Strategy, on-chain data, or credible reports confirming the sale within the market’s official window. Despite this explanation, several users voiced their disappointment, accusing Polymarket of prioritizing technicalities over factual outcomes and losing trust in the platform’s fairness.
The dispute is set to reach a final decision by midnight UTC on Wednesday, with Polymarket stating that if no new statement is issued, the order book will be cleared. The case also highlights the contrast between Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sale and its prior public commitment never to sell its holdings.
Notably, Strategy’s sale announcement affected the Bitcoin price, which dropped approximately 2.5% shortly after the disclosure, before partially rebounding.
This episode underscores tensions between prediction market mechanics and real-world corporate disclosures, as well as the challenges of timing and transparency in financial betting markets.