Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, has lost more than one-third of its value relative to Bitcoin (BTC) over the last year, and market indicators suggest the downtrend could deepen. Technical analysis shows ETH/BTC remains confined under a long-term descending resistance line that has historically capped upward moves since 2022.
After retesting the resistance around August 2025, ETH/BTC failed to break higher near key confluences, including the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA). Since then, the pair has slipped below its 20-month EMA support level, signaling bearish momentum. Analysts identify a potential downside target near 0.0176 BTC, roughly 40% below current levels, which corresponds with Ethereum’s 2020 cycle bottom.
Further evidence reinforcing the bearish outlook comes from exchange reserve trends. Data from Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume, reveals Ether reserves rising to around 3.62 million ETH—representing nearly a quarter of all Ether held on exchanges. Higher exchange balances typically indicate increased selling pressure, as more tokens remain available for trade.
In contrast, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have declined, a sign that BTC holders are withdrawing coins from exchanges for longer-term storage. This divergence suggests that while Bitcoin is experiencing tighter liquidity and growing institutional interest, Ether has increased supply available for sale, putting downward pressure on its price.
Ethereum’s relative weakness also aligns with a shift in market fundamentals. The once-popular “ultrasound money” narrative for Ether has waned, reducing its appeal. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to attract corporate accumulation and integration into traditional finance portfolios, reinforcing its market dominance.