XRP has triggered a SuperTrend buy signal for the first time since mid-June, signaling a shift in market sentiment after weeks of relentless downward pressure. This technical cue, emerging after an extended corrective phase, echoes a previous setup that preceded a notable 14% price surge, offering fresh optimism among traders.
Technical analysis reveals that the SuperTrend indicator has recently provided reliable signals near critical market inflection points, having flagged the last two significant downturns of 19% and 16%. While such patterns seldom guarantee identical results in varying market contexts, the current signal suggests that selling momentum might be weakening, allowing buyers to regain temporary control.
On-chain data from Santiment paints a sobering picture for XRP holders. Average returns have dropped to historic lows, with the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio plunging to -45% and the 365-day metric falling even further to -47%. These figures indicate that both short-term and long-term investors are deeply underwater, reflecting extensive capitulation rather than renewed buying enthusiasm. Still, such extreme MVRV lows often indicate a reduced likelihood of further selling at these depressed levels, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally. However, any sustained recovery hinges on broader market conditions beyond just technical indicators.
Meanwhile, Ripple’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio experienced an extraordinary spike, climbing over 470% in a single day to reach a level above 194. The NVT ratio compares market capitalization to transaction volume on the blockchain. A sharp rise like this typically means the asset’s market value is increasing faster than actual network usage, signaling a divergence often seen early in price recoveries. Although this gap suggests that current price gains may not yet be supported by underlying transaction activity, it does not necessarily undermine XRP’s improving technical outlook. For a continued upward trend, however, a stronger expansion in network transactions will be necessary to justify higher valuations over time.
At present, XRP trades slightly above the $1.03 support level, a zone where buyers have consistently stepped in to prevent deeper losses. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the daily chart recently crossed above the signal line with a positive histogram shift, marking decreased bearish momentum after weeks of decline. Despite these signs of improvement, XRP’s price remains below key resistance levels, and the broader market environment will play a crucial role in determining whether the recovery can be sustained.