President Donald Trump recently claimed that climate experts admitted earlier climate change projections were entirely wrong, citing a new set of emissions scenarios released by an international group of scientists. However, these updated scenarios do not disprove past warnings but rather reflect evolving scientific understanding and progress in emissions reductions worldwide.
The new climate scenarios, released in April, outline seven possible trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century. Unlike the four scenarios from over a decade ago, the range of possible outcomes has narrowed. Notably, the most pessimistic scenario now anticipates lower emissions than previously projected, reflecting some success in moving away from fossil fuels. At the same time, the most optimistic pathway shows emissions could still rise, indicating ongoing risks.
Trump specifically targeted the RCP8.5 scenario, calling it “WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” This scenario was developed as a high-impact, low-probability projection intended to explore potential worst-case outcomes. Scientists involved in creating both the previous and current scenarios emphasize that using a range of scenarios allows for better preparedness and does not mean earlier work was incorrect. The updated data helps policymakers understand which outcomes remain plausible as conditions change.
Experts also corrected Trump’s reference to the “United Nations TOP Climate Committee.” The new scenarios come from a broad international research effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Program, not the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC assesses existing climate research but did not produce the fresh scenarios itself. These new projections will inform the IPCC’s forthcoming assessment reports, holding a significant role in future climate policy discussions.
In response to inquiries about the President’s statements and his apparent dismissal of climate change risks, White House representatives reiterated previous criticisms of climate change policies from political opponents but have yet to clarify their position on the scientific consensus emerging from the latest research.