Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of its bear market, with early indicators pointing toward a deceleration in selling pressure. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, highlighted that while the downturn is not over, the most intense phase of the market decline might be behind investors. This assessment comes as Bitcoin trades significantly below recent all-time highs but displays signs of stabilizing volatility.
Coutts characterized Bitcoin's current price movement as a “typical garden-variety bear market,” noting the cryptocurrency’s price has hovered roughly 50% below its peak. He observed that volatility has fallen by about half compared to the previous cycle, which could imply the ongoing bear market is somewhat milder. Over the past month, Bitcoin recorded a modest price increase, reflecting a tentative rebound in investor sentiment.
Despite these cautious positives, Coutts warned that market behavior seldom follows textbook patterns. Technical indicators presently suggest a bearish trend remains dominant. However, he pointed out emerging bullish divergences on longer-term momentum charts, signaling that negative momentum is losing strength. This technical nuance hints at a slowing pace of decline but does not yet confirm an end to bearish conditions.
Coutts also tied part of Bitcoin’s price weakness to deteriorating onchain fundamentals, alongside tightened global liquidity—a factor many attribute to the market downturn. Onchain demand, which influences price and often correlates with macroeconomic conditions, showed signs of weakening in recent months.
Looking ahead, Coutts expressed skepticism about ultra-optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. His own models suggested such a milestone might be possible in the early 2030s, depending largely on the scale of money printing worldwide. More confidently, he forecasted that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 to $250,000 within the next two to three years, reflecting a more immediate and realistic outlook.
Additionally, Coutts touched on how emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence could influence cryptocurrency markets. With the rise of AI-driven wallets and agents, the question remains whether automated systems will mimic human investment behavior, potentially reshaping value storage patterns.
Finally, he identified quantum computing as a looming long-term threat to Bitcoin’s security. Coutts stressed the importance of the crypto community taking proactive steps by 2027 to mitigate risks associated with advances in quantum technology, which could undermine cryptographic protection.