Bitcoin’s recent performance has raised concerns among analysts as it closed June below its 200-week moving average, a critical long-term support indicator, while still trading above its realized price. This price action points to potential continued downward pressure before the cryptocurrency finds a confirmed bottom.

The popular crypto analyst known as PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow model, highlighted that in all previous bear markets, Bitcoin’s bottom occurred below its realized price. Since Bitcoin closed June at around $58,526—below the 200-week moving average near $62,000 but above the realized price estimated at $52,000—there is room for further decline. He forecasted a possible drop to $52,000, implying a roughly 60% fall from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $126,000.

PlanB emphasized that although Bitcoin is currently undervalued based on on-chain data, prices might still fall below the realized price before recovering. The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all bitcoins currently held and is an important support metric derived from unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs).

Other experts echo this cautious outlook. Andri Fauzan Adziima from Bitrue Research noted that closing above realized price but below the 200-week moving average typically indicates the bear market bottom has yet to arrive. He projects a possible capitulation phase toward late 2026, though potentially milder than past cycles due to growing institutional participation.

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said Bitcoin’s current consolidation around $60,000 might be approaching a bottom zone. If prices slide further, historical and technical support could emerge near $55,000, reinforcing this level as a critical threshold.

Adding to the discussion, Benjamin Cowen of ITC Crypto suggested this year could mark a market cycle bottom for Bitcoin, aligned with the US midterm election cycle. Past midterm years, including 2018 and 2022, have coincided with Bitcoin’s bear market lows. Cowen noted the latter half of these years often becomes an accumulation period signaling the eventual market recovery.

The midterm elections scheduled for November involve all House of Representatives seats and about one-third of Senate seats, a calendar event some traders watch as a potential macro factor for market momentum shifts.