Bitcoin’s recent price movements have hovered just above $75,000, unable to break through resistance near $82,000, while maintaining $76,000 as a firm support level for several weeks. Despite this sideways trading, an under-the-radar on-chain indicator is pointing toward a potential market bottom within the next two months.
This indicator compares two realized price averages: one from long-term holders purchasing between six months and ten years ago, and a broader market average spanning zero to ten years. The ratio of these averages reveals stress levels among the most committed investors relative to the overall market. Historically, when this ratio dips below 0.936 and then climbs back to 1.0, it coincides precisely with Bitcoin’s major bottom points in previous cycles.
During past bear markets, the recovery of this ratio from 0.936 to 1.0 took approximately 50 to 66 days, signaling the exhaustion of selling pressure as even long-term holders become underwater and market panic peaks. Currently, the ratio has again reached 0.936. Should historical patterns hold, this suggests that Bitcoin’s final bottom could form around mid-to-late July 2026.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price stands near $75,269, having fallen nearly 3% over the past week. Weekly and monthly timeframes show similar negative trends, while market sentiment remains cautious with the Fear & Greed Index indicating significant fear. Despite this, some analysts predict a short squeeze could push the price above $83,000 within days, followed by moderate gains in the coming month. Longer-term projections point to a possible price rise toward $90,000 within three months, reflecting an optimistic outlook if the bottom does indeed form soon.