The United States continues to hold an advantage in biotechnology, particularly in large-scale production, capital access, commercialization, and talent pools. However, a recent survey of senior biotech leaders indicates this lead is fragile, with concerns growing over China’s rapid progress in critical areas like clinical development and supply chain infrastructure.

According to the Cure Innovation Index survey, which gathered insights from over 100 US industry experts, the competitive landscape in biotechnology has shifted from scientific discovery to the ability to efficiently move innovations from research pipelines through trials, financing, manufacturing, and distribution. While discovery levels between the US and China are now comparable, China excels in advancing clinical-stage programs and building robust supply chains. This dynamic has led to a majority of respondents—around 85%—predicting that the US’s biotech supremacy may last no longer than a decade.

Data from Georgetown University underscores this shift. The US share of early-stage drug development programs dropped from nearly half in 2015 to just over one-third in 2024. Meanwhile, China’s share soared from less than 10% to more than 30%, reflecting a significant surge in biotech initiatives. The total global count of early-stage programs has nearly doubled in that span, driven largely by Chinese-origin projects, which now number in the thousands.

This surge has caught the attention of multinational pharmaceutical companies, which increasingly license molecules from China due to lower development costs, regulatory efficiencies, and government-backed subsidies, though some critics argue the latter distorts market fairness. In response, US authorities are strengthening policy frameworks to maintain competitiveness. The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology recently warned about China’s vertically integrated biotech ecosystem that could threaten US leadership.

The growing tension between the two nations was a major theme at the annual Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) meeting held in San Diego, an event that attracts tens of thousands of biotech professionals and commemorates milestones like the founding of Genentech, often regarded as the genesis of modern biotech innovation in the US. The convention highlighted both the enduring strengths and emerging vulnerabilities of the US biotech industry in a rapidly evolving global race.