Bitcoin hovered around $62,700 to $63,450 as the week closed, approaching its highest level in two weeks. Yet traders remain cautious as the cryptocurrency nears the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a vital long-term support line that often guides market direction. The critical question is whether this level can hold as a base or if selling pressure will push prices lower.
During the recent rally over a US holiday weekend, thin order books facilitated a price climb, fueled partly by a short squeeze that forced traders betting against Bitcoin to cover their positions. Liquidations of these short bets totaled hundreds of millions within 24 hours, highlighting the volatility beneath the surface despite Bitcoin’s sideways movement. This squeeze triggered a grind higher in price but left uncertainty about sustainability.
Amid this technical tug-of-war, several experienced traders have expressed concern about Bitcoin’s price behavior on Mondays. A notable analyst pointed out that the past seven Mondays have seen significant weakness in Bitcoin, raising questions about whether this pattern will repeat in the coming week. Such recurring drops on Mondays could dampen short-term market confidence.
On the broader market front, recent macroeconomic data injected cautious optimism. Renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have ended a series of outflows, signaling a return of dip buyers. This shift comes after softer-than-expected US employment figures eased fears of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The probability of the Fed maintaining current interest rates into their upcoming meeting is now near 80%, which traders see as potentially supportive for risk assets like Bitcoin.
In this environment, Bitcoin is poised at a technical and psychological crossroads. Holding above the 200-week SMA near $62,700 could mark a foundation for further gains, but failure to do so might revive selling pressure. Investors and traders will closely watch market moves early next week to determine if past patterns of Monday declines will persist or if Bitcoin can sustain its recent resilience.