Former President Donald Trump is set to confront NATO allies regarding their defense budgets, criticizing what he describes as “funny math” in how some members report their military spending. As NATO prepares for a summit in Turkey, important allies—including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain—are falling short of agreed commitments to increase defense expenditures, risking delays in meeting NATO’s long-term goals.
Since Trump’s original push during his first term, NATO members have made strides toward the 2% of GDP defense spending target, with all members expected to reach it by 2025. However, achieving the new pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2030 remains elusive for several of the alliance’s largest economies, whose political and economic challenges have slowed progress.
The United Kingdom exemplifies these challenges. Despite being Europe’s second-largest economy and a nuclear power, its military size has contracted to its smallest level in over 200 years. It currently allocates just over 2% of GDP to defense—well below the 5% agreed in NATO’s recent commitments. Although Britain recently announced an additional $20 billion in defense funding, the financing strategy is questioned, and the increase still falls short of even a 3% GDP defense budget. The UK has conceded it will not meet the 5% target by 2030, instead setting a more modest goal of 3.5% by 2035, a figure experts regard as optimistic given current trends.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has emphasized the need for member states to fulfill their commitments and reduce dependence on the United States by enhancing European defense capabilities. However, political inertia and economic stagnation within some key members impede rapid progress toward these objectives.
Amid these dynamics, Trump’s forthcoming criticisms signal an ongoing U.S. expectation for burden-sharing within the alliance. He is also expected to push back against NATO’s refusal to grant the U.S. access to certain military bases for operations related to Iran, viewing such cooperation as critical for collective security.