Bitcoin’s price remains constrained in a narrow range amid persistent selling pressure, primarily from U.S. investors. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break above roughly $63,000, holding between $59,000 and $63,000, but underlying indicators caution that a significant rebound may be premature.
One notable gauge, the Bitcoin-to-global M2 money supply ratio, signals that Bitcoin's valuation could still decline. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the global M2 money supply—a measure of cash and near-cash assets—and serves as a proxy for assessing when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. Currently, the ratio sits near 0.94%, which, while low, has historically needed to drop further into the lower “blue” zone before marking a reliable market bottom.
The U.S. market’s role in driving the recent downtrend is substantial. American investors have been offloading Bitcoin steadily for over five weeks, withdrawing more than $5.5 billion through U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since mid-May. When the sell-off began, Bitcoin traded above $79,000; it has since fallen to just over $62,000. This selling has chilled demand domestically, with the Coinbase Premium Index—reflecting the price gap between U.S. and global buyers—showing U.S. investors paying less, which may indicate accelerating selling pressure ahead.
An additional sign of bearish sentiment is the rise in Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges. Exchange reserves climbed by about $4 billion since the start of the sell-off, topping $241 billion, making more Bitcoin readily convertible into other assets. This increased supply on exchanges tends to weigh on prices as sellers flood the market.
Beyond market mechanics, broader economic and geopolitical tensions also temper investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. Growing conflicts between the U.S. and Iran add uncertainty, limiting enthusiasm for bullish bets in crypto markets for now.