The United States and Iran have reportedly negotiated a draft memorandum that would require Tehran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as a minimum nuclear restraint. This measure aims to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions while stopping short of permanently lifting US sanctions. Instead, the draft proposes waiving certain sanctions upon signing, without fully eliminating them.
Alongside nuclear provisions, the draft addresses regional security concerns by securing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for a limited 60-day period. This strategic waterway is vital to global oil shipments, and the agreement leaves open the possibility of future fees, maintaining flexibility on access terms. Additionally, the memorandum includes commitments to Lebanon's territorial integrity amid ongoing Israeli incursions linked to the Hezbollah militant group. The deal explicitly mandates an immediate cessation of military operations in Lebanon following its signing.
These conditions indicate a complex balance: while Iran agrees not to pursue nuclear weapons and to downgrade uranium enrichment on site, the United States offers limited sanctions relief and temporary regional assurances aimed at de-escalating hostilities. The draft remains confidential, shared only with select US officials and journalists. Iranian authorities have yet to formally release the text, but suggestions from Tehran indicate a potential signing by Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and then-US President Donald Trump. Such a ceremony would mark a significant thaw, considering the diplomatic rupture following the 1980 US Embassy hostage crisis in Tehran.
Despite the progress, uncertainty looms. President Trump expressed doubt about the deal’s finalization and signing, highlighting the unpredictability of diplomatic agreements. Iranian political dynamics also complicate matters. Pezeshkian, who came to power pledging improved ties with the West, has seen his influence diminished following domestic unrest and the rise of hardliners within Iran’s government.
The draft reflects lessons from the Obama-era nuclear pact, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities but was abandoned by the Trump administration. Tehran continues to assert its nuclear program’s peaceful nature, while the new memorandum attempts to bridge longstanding fears and mistrust on both sides through measured concessions and commitments.