The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will remain in effect until 2036, following a mandated review process that allows annual renewals if the three countries fail to agree on a longer-term extension. Despite this continuation, the U.S. administration has signaled its intent to seek more stringent terms, emphasizing concerns over persistent trade deficits with Canada and Mexico.
The agreement’s Article 34.7 required member countries to decide whether to renew the pact for an additional 16 years. While talks have yet to produce a consensus for outright renewal, the USMCA continues to govern trilateral trade under annual reviews. This interim framework means businesses can count on the agreement’s rules for the near future, though uncertainty remains for automakers, farmers, steel and aluminum producers, and other sectors deeply integrated across North American supply chains.
Daily cross-border trade facilitated by the USMCA is substantial, with trilateral commerce in 2024 approaching $2 trillion and accounting for nearly 30% of global GDP. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office launched a public consultation process last year, including hearings held by the U.S. International Trade Commission, to prepare for the latest review scheduled for early July. Meanwhile, Canadian and Mexican officials conducted parallel consultations within their countries to gather input from domestic industries and stakeholders.
The first trilateral meeting among the three governments to discuss the pact’s future took place on July 1. The U.S. stance focuses on reforming provisions to reduce trade imbalances, while Canada and Mexico advocate for maintaining the agreement as it currently stands. The outcome of these discussions will shape the contours of North American trade governance for years to come, with negotiations expected to continue amid competing economic priorities.