The supply of Bitcoin held by long-term investors recently reached a historic peak, signaling strong conviction among seasoned holders and suggesting that the crypto market may bottom sooner than expected. According to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten, this milestone reflects a typical pattern observed at previous market lows.
Data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode shows that long-term holders now possess 14.7 million BTC, the highest ever recorded. This trend correlates with increased accumulation since late 2025, following a major liquidation event. Coinglass corroborates this trend, reporting a rise in long-term holder supply to 16.65 million BTC, up 14% since late November. Long-term holding is defined as owning BTC for at least 155 days, often viewed as an indicator of investors’ confidence and reluctance to sell despite price volatility.
However, this optimistic signal contrasts with other predictions that foresee a later market bottom. For instance, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, projects Bitcoin’s price low to occur as late as late 2026, months after Strategy’s Multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV) reaches cycle lows. Zhuoer estimates the bottom could be around $42,000 to $44,000, emphasizing a delayed but substantial price correction.
Strategy’s mNAV compares a company’s market value to the intrinsic worth of its Bitcoin treasury, and the metric has approached historic lows recently. This further supports the argument for a potentially lower price floor, even as long-term holders accumulate more coins.
Regulatory developments continue to cloud Bitcoin’s trajectory. The fate of the CLARITY Act, critical legislation aimed at clarifying crypto regulations, remains uncertain. Failure to pass this law within the year could push treasury companies toward further deleveraging, adding downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Grayscale’s head of research has highlighted this risk, while Galaxy Digital recently reduced the odds of the Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, citing legislative delays.